I think markets need a breather but, still need another leg down from a technical perspective.
| Symbol | Daily | Weekly | Monthly | Notes |
| SPX Score: Daily: -5 Weekly: – 1 Monthly: 2 | – Touched Bottom of Keltner and sliding along it – Momentum bearish – Rainbow EMA is bearish and price pulled back. – price < 200 – Cycle high | – Showing Squeeze w/ increasing bear momo – Momentum Bearish MACD + 10 SMA > 34 EMA but, hooking down – DMI bearish + price > 200 | + 10 SMA angling up with price above it. Bullish + price > 200 | |
| NDX Score: Daily: – 5 Weekly: – 1 Monthly: 2 | similar to SPX | – Showing Squeeze, w/ increasing bearish momo – Momentum Bearish MACD + 10 SMA > 34 EMA but, hooking down – DMI bearish + price > 200 * Anti beginning to form | + 10 SMA angling up with price above it. Bullish + price > 200 | |
| IWM Score: Daily: – 3 Weekly: -4 Monthly: 2 | – Touched Bottom of Keltner and sliding down – Rainbow EMAs – price < 200 + has hit multiple measured move targets to the downside still. Including a support level – cycle high | – Momentum Bearish MACD -DMI bearish – 10 SMA < 34 EMA – Structurally broke bearish + price > 200 – touched bottom of keltner channel | + 10 SMA angling up with price below it. Bullish + price > 200 + nearing a cycle low | * keep an eye on this one. It has been leading the market down and might exhaust with the rest of this market. *currently monthly cycle at support might be a good turn around long candidate. |
| IYT Score: Daily: – 2 Weekly: -1 Monthly: 2 | – Rainbow EMA bearish – price < 200 – Bottom Keltner touch + hit multiple measured move targets. * previous gaps and targets could act as resistance. | – Momentum Bearish MACD – DMI bearish + 10 SMA > 34 EMA but, hooking up w/ price belwo + price > 200 – squeeze setting up bearish | + 10 SMA angling up with price below it. Bullish + price > 200 | |
| TLT Score: Daily: -4 Weekly: – 4 Monthly: – 1 | * Momentum MACD slow > 0 but down and fast > 0 but down * Rainbow EMA’s are flat – Big 200 rejection (twice). – bearish squeeze setting up – cycle high -bearish squeeze | + MACD Momentum up but slowing – 10 sma < 34 ema but slowing – price < 200 – bottom keltner touch -cycle high – price rejecting the 34 * has not taken out previous pivot high | + Show Squeeze with positive momentum w/ Cycle low – 10 sma < 34 ema but, slowing – price < 200 | * Strength in TLT could slow equities |
| GLD Score: Daily: 2 Weekly: 3 Monthly: 2 | + Momentum fast > 0 and slow + Full rainbow and a bounce at the 8 ema. + price > 200 – free bars | + 10 sma > 32 ema, price above 10 + price > 200 + MACD momo up but slowing -free bar + DMI bullish | + 10 SMA angling up with price below it. Bullish + price > 200 | |
| AUDUSD Score: Daily: 2 Weekly: – 1 Monthly: -2 | – Below 200 * Still chopping around, a break of .64081 would change market structure bullish + bullish seasonality for AUD should kick in soon. + cycle low while making a higher high | – Below 200 – Cycle high – Bottom Keltner touched without getting lower + MOMO up +squeeze long | – Squeeze starting w/ increasing bearish momentum – below 200 – 10 sma < 34 ema and angling down +cycle low | * Typically an indication the equities are to follow. Bearish == risk off * AUDJPY, looks the very similar but, it broke market structure bullish. |
| HG Score: Daily: 4 Weekly: 4 Monthly: 3 | + Top Keltner touch, complex pullback + MACD momentum fast and slow > 0 + Rainbow in play + price > 200 | + MACD Up + 10sma > 34 ema + price > 200 +Top of keltner channel touch | + price > 200 + 10 sma > 34 ema + Monthly squeeze with bullish momentum | * Interestingly enough, copper shows strength in China and by default AUD because of trade. * Shows strength in global economy, when copper is doing well, the world is usually growing. |
| BTCUSD Score: Daily: – 4 Weekly: 0 Monthly: 2 | + regained 200 – Rainbow bearish – Lower Keltner hit, hasn’t reached pivot low – Daily MACD fast > 0 and slow < 0 but flat – Formed a bear flag -cycle high * squeeze showing | + price > 200 – weekly momentum MACD down + At Cycle low near support + 10sma > 34 ema – DMI bearish – bearish squeeze | + 10sma > 34 ema + price > 200 | * Saylor bought a ton of BTC around these levels |
| China Semi Index Score: Daily: -3 Weekly: – 4 Monthly: 2 | – Price < 200 and consolidating – Rainbow EMA bearish – cycle high * MACD looks to be turning bullish | -Showing a bearish squeeze. – Bearish momentum – Market structural break bearish – DMI bearish + 10 SMA > 34 EMA but, price below | + 10 SMA angling up with price above it. Bullish + price > 200 | |
| Mag 7 Score: Daily: – 3 Weekly: -1 Monthly: 2 | – Price lost 200and rejected * MACD turning bullish – rainbow bearish – cycle high | + 10 SMA > 34 EMA but, price below – DMI bearish + Entering cycle low below support – Bearish momentum MACD + price > 200 – Market structural break bearish – potential anti on MACD | + 10 SMA angling up with price above it. Bullish + Price > 200 |
My Thoughts
Not much to take from this week technically speaking. I am thinking IWM can lead the charge to the upside as it did to the downside. We are nearing the end of the month so it would be interesting to see if while IWM is at long term support in a cycle low if it can bounce back.
Macro speaking, it is possible that a lot of foreign funds are rotating out of US equities in order to avoid taxable income. This is speculative as nothing as been talked about it yet but, fund might want to get out before taxes become a thing with the new America first policies being implemented.
Trade Ideas
- I am watching IWM for now as a signal to get long in my longer-term portfolio.
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