I am looking for markets to pullback back bullish before continuing to the downside in the coming weeks.
| Symbol | Daily | Weekly | Monthly | Notes |
| SPX Score: Daily: -4 Weekly: – 1 Monthly: 2 | – Touched Bottom of Keltner and sliding along it – Momentum bearish – Rainbow EMA is bearish but, price is extended to the Keltner – price < 200 | – Showing Squeeze w/ increasing bear momo – Momentum Bearish MACD + 10 SMA > 34 EMA but, hooking down – DMI bearish + price > 200 | + 10 SMA angling up with price above it. Bullish + price > 200 | |
| NDX Score: Daily: – 3 Weekly: – 2 Monthly: 2 | – Touched Bottom of Keltner – Rainbow EMA bearish – price < 200 | – Showing Squeeze, w/ increasing bearish momo + entering cycle low territory – Momentum Bearish MACD + 10 SMA > 34 EMA but, hooking down – price < 34 EMA – DMI bearish + price > 200 | + 10 SMA angling up with price above it. Bullish + price > 200 | |
| IWM Score: Daily: – 2 Weekly: -3 Monthly: 2 | – Touched Bottom of Keltner and sliding down – Rainbow EMA converging and 8, 21, 34 crossed below. – price < 200 + has hit multiple measured move targets to the downside still. Including a support level | – Momentum Bearish MACD -DMI bearish – 10 SMA < 34 EMA – Structurally broke bearish + price > 200 | + 10 SMA angling up with price below it. Bullish + price > 200 | |
| IYT Score: Daily: – 4 Weekly: -1 Monthly: 1 | – Rainbow EMA bearish – price < 200 – Gap and 61.8% retracement targets close below – Bottom Keltner touch | – Momentum Bearish MACD – DMI bearish + 10 SMA > 34 EMA but, hooking up w/ price belwo + price > 200 – squeeze setting up bearish | + 10 SMA angling up with price below it. Bullish + price > 200 – Price keeps rejecting resistance | |
| TLT Score: Daily: 1 Weekly: – 3 Monthly: – 1 | * Momentum MACD slow > 0 but flat and fast < 0 * Rainbow crossed positive 8 > 21 but EMA’s are flat – Big 200 rejection. + holding support at $90 + cycle low | + MACD Momentum up but slowing – 10 sma < 32 ema but slowing – price < 200 – bottom keltner touch -cycle high * has not taken out previous pivot high | + Show Squeeze with positive momentum w/ Cycle low – 10 sma < 34 ema but, slowing – price < 200 | * Strength in TLT could slow equities |
| GLD Score: Daily: 4 Weekly: 5 Monthly: 2 | + Momentum fast > 0 and slow + Full rainbow and a bounce at the 34 ema. + price > 200 + top keltner touch | + 10 sma > 32 ema, price above 10 + price > 200 + MACD momo up but slowing + Top of Keltner touch + DMI bullish | + 10 SMA angling up with price below it. Bullish + price > 200 | |
| AUDUSD Score: Daily: 0 Weekly: – 2 Monthly: -1 | – Below 200 * Still chopping around, a break of .64081 would change market structure bullish + bullish seasonality for AUD should kick in soon. | – Below 200 – Cycle high – Bottom Keltner touched without getting lower + MOMO up | + Squeeze starting w/ increasing bullish momentum – below 200 – 10 sma < 34 ema and angling down | * Typically an indication the equities are to follow. Bearish == risk off * AUDJPY, looks the very similar but, it broke market structure bullish. |
| HG Score: Daily: 4 Weekly: 3 Monthly: 3 | + Top Keltner touch, complex pullback + MACD momentum fast angling up (near 0) and slow > 0 (but down) + Rainbow in play + price > 200 | + MACD Up + 10sma > 34 ema + price > 200 | + price > 200 + 10 sma > 34 ema + Monthly squeeze with bullish momentum | * Interestingly enough, copper shows strength in China and by default AUD because of trade. * Shows strength in global economy, when copper is doing well, the world is usually growing. |
| BTCUSD Score: Daily: – 7 Weekly: 1 Monthly: 2 | – lost 200 and rejecting – Rainbow bearish – Lower Keltner hit, hasn’t reached pivot low – Daily MACD momentum < 0 – Formed a bear flag -cycle high – bearish squeeze | + price > 200 – weekly momentum MACD down + At Cycle low near support + 10sma > 34 ema – DMI bearish | + 10sma > 34 ema + price > 200 | * US just announced a treasury reserve for crypto assets |
| China Semi Index Score: Daily: -3 Weekly: – 3 Monthly: 2 | – Price < 200 and consolidating – Decreasing upside momentum – Rainbow EMA bearish | -Showing a bearish squeeze. – Bearish momentum – Market structural break bearish – DMI bearish + 10 SMA > 34 EMA but, price below | + 10 SMA angling up with price above it. Bullish + price > 200 | * Assigned negative points for weekly cycle considering the squeeze |
| Mag 7 Score: Daily: – 3 Weekly: 0 Monthly: 2 | – Price lost 200and rejected – MACD momentum < 0 – rainbow bearish | + 10 SMA > 34 EMA but, price below – DMI bearish + Entering cycle low below support – Bearish momentum MACD + price > 200 – Market structural break bearish | + 10 SMA angling up with price above it. Bullish + Price > 200 |
My Thoughts
Longer term timeframes are seeing the impact of shorter term price movements. I do think we see a pullback in the short term time frames before we see further downward pressure.
I would look for the MAGS and the semi conductors to pullback and reset before turning bearish again as a sign that the greater market is doing the same.
AUDJPY broke market structure bullish and is possibly leading AUDUSD. AUD is set for a seasonal move and HG (copper) is continuing to show strength. This is not good for equities which further supports my idea of a more red in the coming weeks.
Trade Ideas
- Looking to add AUD to my long-term portfolio.
- BTC is showing much spot weakness and there is was a massive whale selling short over this week. I am looking for a GBTC short.
- Looking for The Economist cover page contrarian play in USD for long term portfolio.
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